Monday, March 24, 2014

Triad of Expectation

This is something my dad, in his unparalleled wisdom as Bearer of the Sacred 'Stache, passed on to me. I don't know if it's an original or if he got it from somewhere in turn, but here ya go.

The thing was created to apply to purchasing products or services, but I've found it applies more broadly to things in life. It's one of these classic formations in triangle form, where you can select two to emphasize at the cost of the other one.

The triad is composed of Good, Cheap, and Fast. If it's cheap and fast, it likely won't be good, but if you get it good and fast, it certainly won't be cheap.

My dad applies this sort of thinking to airplane parts and other manly workshop-y things like that, and uses it as a sort of risk vs. reward thought. The questions of how badly something is needed vs. the time-frame it's needed in vs. how long it needs to last and so on ad infinitum all stack up against one another as his gears turn and grind, and eventually a decision gets spat out of all the whirling, steaming machinery.

As overly simplistic as the plain triangle figure is (life is complicated), I actually find it's a helpful quick-and-dirty reference for judgment. Knowing that people are limited by the basic constraints of the triangle is very helpful in terms of telling which things are worth a second look and which get immediately filed under "Purge."

For instance, I recently received two offers via email, both related to my grades. The first was an invitation to submit an essay about questions of ethics in the modern world. It featured the prizes prominently (one of which was for $2,000 cash, to give you an idea), of course, because that's how contest entry works. The contest was also free to join. Now, this is Good and Cheap; I didn't need to pay anything, and there was potentially a pretty substantial payoff. Notice, however, that it wasn't Fast (or Easy, maybe); competition was going to be stiff, and writing such an essay would take a lot of thought and effort investment on my part. Ultimately, I realized writing the requisite essay, combined with the rest of the school experience, was so un-Easy that I decided not to do it (I didn't even like the questions, either, the pretentious buggers, but that's separate).

The other offer was to join something called NSCS, the National Society of Collegiate Scholars. For $95, I could join this little organization and network easily with all its other chapters and members, giving me All Types of Things! Career-wise, this was advertised as a major break, because they had people in Positions X and Y in Industries Gamma and Lambda, and working in the offices of Guy 3, and so on. So, let's examine this; $95 is no pocket-change fee, but for the supposed payoff that's pretty Cheap. Speaking of the payoff, that would be insanely Good. Finally, I was supposed to be able to gain employment and benefits and things immediately; it was supposedly Fast in the extreme. With all three points of the triad impossibly present and imbricated with their generally sketchy presentation (the third question on their FAQ was "Is this a legitimate organization? Yes!"), I passed on that with no conflict of conscience.

So keep this lovely little triad in mind in life, not just as applied to finance but more broadly with regard to opportunities and everything. I try to cultivate a degree of optimism here, but always remember: as a general rule, things that seem too good to be true often are. The exceptions to the rule are fabulous, but it is the exceptions that make that particular rule.

There's no such thing as free or infinite profit; if there was someone would have tapped it long ago, rest assured. The same is true of life experiences in general. The costs aren't always apparent until later, but be certain that there is at least some cost associated with everything, whether it's simply the time invested or something more sinister.

As an example of something that seemed to meet all three points on the triad and didn't reveal its consequences until later, let's talk about crack!

Crack is a major issue even today, but it was an absolute epidemic in the mid-80's and early 90's. This was, and is, a hell of a drug. It started flowing in with great exuberance during the Iran-Contra Dealio, and there are lots of allegations about the CIA's (in)direct involvement with the issue. With the greater availability, it became, comparatively, extremely Cheap, to the point that people could feed their addiction off simple petty theft or robbery (hence the massive crime spike at the time). It's one of the Fastest drugs available in terms of its effects, taking effect immediately (hence the movie image of the person doing a line and then, by the time they sit back, already showing the effects). And, most of all, it apparently makes you feel really Good, to the point that it can eliminate other things' ability to make you feel good.

Most people who got hooked on crack weren't aware they were going to get hooked. Their friends, or dealers, or whoever, just told them it made them feel amazing, and that was their immediate perception. Nobody stopped to apply their judgment. Again, the impact of addiction isn't apparent until later; you're fine, doing whatever, and then suddenly you're robbing a corner store at gunpoint with blood running freely out of your nose and neither of those things bothers you.

I don't mean to be negative! Just employ the triad and carefully examine the options.

This is also where I take a second out to say a genuine "thank you" to people reading this, and "sorry" for my absence. I have been, as they say, occupied, but I'm back now! Thanks, everybody, for being patient with my madness, and hello to anybody who's new!

TL;DR You can pick two; I'm back, thanks for reading.

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